Petrol Prices Set to Fall as US-Iran Deal Eases Oil Costs
UK petrol prices are heading down after a framework deal between the US and Iran pushed wholesale oil costs lower. The agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has already dragged Brent crude back from its wartime highs, and motoring group the RAC expects pump prices to follow within a fortnight. For drivers, it points to the first real relief since the conflict began in late February.
Oil Falls After the US-Iran Framework Deal
The war that started on 28 February 2026 effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the route for roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas, sending Brent crude from about $70 a barrel before the conflict to a peak above $110. Following news of the framework deal, the price has slipped back to around $83 a barrel, according to the BBC.
The RAC says the fall "should quickly bring prices down at the pumps". As a rule of thumb, every $10 change in the oil price moves pump prices by about 7p a litre, though it takes roughly two weeks for wholesale moves to reach forecourts.
Where Prices Stand and Where They're Headed
Petrol peaked at 159.53p a litre on 28 May during the conflict, while diesel hit 191.54p on 15 April. Over the past week petrol has eased by nearly 2p to 156.37p a litre and diesel by around 3p to 177.89p, the RAC reports.
If oil settles near $85 a barrel, RAC head of policy Simon Williams expects unleaded to fall to roughly 148p a litre over the coming weeks, with diesel dropping below 160p. Filling a 55-litre family car currently costs about £85.74 for petrol and £97.22 for diesel — still £12 to £19 more than before the war, but below the 2022 records of 191.5p for petrol and 199p for diesel.
It is worth noting the official markets regulator investigated price-gouging claims during the conflict and said it had not seen evidence that retailers changed their pricing to exploit the crisis.
What This Means for Drivers
The direction of travel is downward, but not instant. Because wholesale moves take about a fortnight to filter through, the steeper falls are likely over the next two weeks rather than overnight. Prices could stall again if the ceasefire wobbles or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is slow to recover, so the savings are not guaranteed.
There is also a duty angle in drivers' favour: the planned staged reversal of the 5p fuel duty cut has been frozen to the end of 2026, so no duty rise will add to pump prices this summer or autumn.
How to Save on Fuel
- Shop around before filling up. The gap between the cheapest and dearest forecourt in the same area is often wider than recent changes in the national average — you can find the cheapest petrol near you using live Fuel Finder data.
- Top up little and often rather than running the tank to empty, so you buy at the lowest local price instead of wherever you happen to be when the warning light comes on.
- Keep tyres correctly inflated and clear excess weight from the boot. Under-inflated tyres and extra load both push fuel consumption up.
Sources
- BBC News — What's happening to UK petrol and diesel prices? — accessed 15 June 2026
- RAC Fuel Watch — accessed 15 June 2026
- GOV.UK — Fuel Finder — accessed 15 June 2026