Petrol Set to Fall Below 150p After Gulf Peace Deal
Petrol prices are set to drop below 150p a litre in the coming days after a US–Iran framework deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz and eased pressure on global oil markets. For UK drivers who have paid more at the pump through the spring conflict, relief is coming — but slowly, because pump prices lag wholesale costs by days or weeks.
What has happened to oil and pump prices
The Strait of Hormuz, which carries around a fifth of the world's oil, has been reopened to tanker traffic under a framework agreement between the US and Iran. Brent crude has fallen below $80 a barrel after spiking to roughly $120 during the conflict, with the international benchmark touching $78.24 on 17 June — its lowest since early March, according to Al Jazeera.
That fall is starting to feed through to forecourts. At the peak, the RAC says the average price of petrol (E10, the standard unleaded blend containing up to 10% renewable ethanol) rose by 20% to 159.53p a litre, while diesel (B7, containing up to 7% biodiesel) hit 191.54p on 15 April. The AA reports petrol has already eased by 4.6p a litre and diesel by nearly 9p even before the deal was signed, as reported by Autocar.
Simon Williams, the RAC's head of policy, said drivers "can now expect to see the average pump price of petrol drop below 150 pence in the next week or so, while diesel should drop back under 170 pence."
Why drivers won't see the full drop overnight
Wholesale prices move quickly; pump prices do not. Fuel retailers buy stock on different cycles — some daily, others on a weekly, fortnightly or three-week lag — so forecourts still selling fuel bought at higher prices take longer to pass on savings. The Petrol Retailers Association and the AA both expect the fall to filter through over weeks rather than days, and the AA cautions that prices are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels soon, partly because tankers remain out of position. Before the conflict, petrol averaged 132p and diesel 141p, according to the RAC.
Against that national picture, our own figures from the official UK Government Fuel Finder dataset (as of 22 June 2026) show the UK average for E10 petrol at 153.7p a litre. There is a clear regional spread: Northern Ireland is the cheapest area at an average of 148.1p, while the South of England is dearest at 155.0p. The gap between the cheapest and dearest forecourts remains wide — in Northern Ireland the lowest recorded price was 123.9p against far higher prices elsewhere — which is exactly where drivers can save without waiting for the national average to move.
What This Means for Drivers
The direction of travel is down. Both the RAC and AA expect petrol below 150p and diesel under 170p in the near term, with further falls possible if the ceasefire holds and tanker traffic through Hormuz returns to normal. But the savings will arrive unevenly — faster at forecourts that buy fuel frequently, slower elsewhere — so the price on your local totem matters more than the headline average right now.
How to Save on Fuel
- Compare local forecourts before you fill up — the spread between the cheapest and dearest station in a single area can be 10p a litre or more, worth several pounds on a 50-litre tank. You can find the cheapest petrol near you using daily official data.
- Favour supermarket forecourts where practical; the big retailers typically price below premium-brand sites.
- Keep tyres correctly inflated and remove unnecessary weight and roof boxes, which cut fuel economy and quietly raise your cost per mile.
Sources
- Autocar — When will fuel prices drop? How Hormuz deal affects UK drivers — accessed 22 June 2026
- Al Jazeera — Oil prices continue slide amid hopes for peace, opening of Strait of Hormuz — accessed 22 June 2026
- UK Government Fuel Finder data via PetrolPricesNearYou.com — dataset as of 22 June 2026, accessed 22 June 2026